CSC market update 6/7/24

Quick update post the Job # which is hitting bonds.

The number came in much stronger than forecasted. Wages also accelerated. This is pushing back the rate cut projections, again. This is getting tiring and very tough to navigate as we are always hopping from one foot to the other with respect to every macro release.

The ISM Manufacturing data, released on Monday, sparked economic slowdown fears, which had a noticeable impact on the stock market. However, the ISM Services data, released on Wednesday, helped alleviate some of those fears.

The payroll number today suggests the economy is too hot.

It’s a roller coaster of data points all contradicting each other. This makes swing trading difficult as it disrupts the continuity of what’s seemingly trending.

So, what happened? Payrolls advanced 272K with average hourly earnings +.4% from April, accelerating month to month and year on year. However, the unemployment rate increased to 4% from 3.9% and is now above that level for the first time in over two years. How can the unemployment number increase? It’s simply a denominator effect as more people enter the workforce.

This is impacting the rates market, the $USD, and interest rate-sensitive sectors.

Most of our positions are shaking it off today and are up despite the market being soft. This is why it’s important to find the right stocks.

A few updates below:

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