CSC Idea post

We’re in one of the most challenging environments for swing trading that we’ve seen in years. Taking outright long or short positions without active hedges is extremely difficult right now. Even some of our hedge fund clients have pressed pause—they simply can’t manage the risk effectively in this backdrop.

As we’ve said time and again: when uncertainty spikes, do less. And we’re at peak uncertainty right now.

Well-known traders like Mark Minervi are 100% in cash. IBD’s Mike Webster is recommending the same. This is not the time for outsized allocations—capital preservation is paramount.

Trading is about patience and discipline—waiting for the right pitch. With conflicting headlines and a constant barrage of negative news, volatility is swinging wildly. When the VIX is above 20, swing trading becomes extremely challenging due to stop-outs and gap risk. As we write this, the VIX is sitting above 43.

Here’s some context: using the “Rule of 16” (divide the VIX by 16), we get an expected daily move of ~2.7%, or around 150 S&P points in either direction. That’s incredibly volatile.

This doesn’t mean trading is impossible—it just favors a different style. In fact, these conditions are ideal for intraday trading. But intraday setups require a distinct skillset and are not the core focus of this service.

That said, many of you have asked for a space to collaborate and exchange ideas during the day. We’re actively working on Discord automation to help facilitate that. This will allow us to share occasional intraday observations and create a space for you to connect and exchange trade ideas with the community. While we don’t day trade often ourselves, we see value in fostering that interaction.

Lastly, despite the turbulence, a handful of stocks are weathering the storm impressively. If we eventually escape this tariff mess, these names could emerge as early leaders. We’ll share a few thoughts on them in the next section.

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