CSC Idea post

We’re in one of the most challenging environments for swing trading that we’ve seen in years. Taking outright long or short positions without active hedges is extremely difficult right now. Even some of our hedge fund clients have pressed pause—they simply can’t manage the risk effectively in this backdrop.

As we’ve said time and again: when uncertainty spikes, do less. And we’re at peak uncertainty right now.

Well-known traders like Mark Minervi are 100% in cash. IBD’s Mike Webster is recommending the same. This is not the time for outsized allocations—capital preservation is paramount.

Trading is about patience and discipline—waiting for the right pitch. With conflicting headlines and a constant barrage of negative news, volatility is swinging wildly. When the VIX is above 20, swing trading becomes extremely challenging due to stop-outs and gap risk. As we write this, the VIX is sitting above 43.

Here’s some context: using the “Rule of 16” (divide the VIX by 16), we get an expected daily move of ~2.7%, or around 150 S&P points in either direction. That’s incredibly volatile.

This doesn’t mean trading is impossible—it just favors a different style. In fact, these conditions are ideal for intraday trading. But intraday setups require a distinct skillset and are not the core focus of this service.

That said, many of you have asked for a space to collaborate and exchange ideas during the day. We’re actively working on Discord automation to help facilitate that. This will allow us to share occasional intraday observations and create a space for you to connect and exchange trade ideas with the community. While we don’t day trade often ourselves, we see value in fostering that interaction.

Lastly, despite the turbulence, a handful of stocks are weathering the storm impressively. If we eventually escape this tariff mess, these names could emerge as early leaders. We’ll share a few thoughts on them in the next section.

BABA remains one of my core holdings and continues to present an intriguing setup. After a sharp run to $150, it’s now pulled back to the $100 area. While the macro environment remains extremely fluid, recent comments from Trump have taken on a more conciliatory tone—potentially laying the groundwork for renewed talks. If that materializes, BABA could surge 20% in short order.

Of course, it’s impossible to handicap political developments, so we’re simply highlighting the technical and risk/reward setup—not making a macro prediction.

Technically, BABA is finding support at its 200-day moving average and is set to print a DeMark 9 buy signal on Monday. This aligns with an interesting asymmetrical risk/reward opportunity: using the recent low as a stop, you’re risking roughly $7 for the potential of a 50–100% gain over the next 12 months.

This isn’t a quick trade—it’s a longer-term position idea with a favorable entry, assuming you're comfortable with some near-term volatility.

Here’s a snapshot of names we’re tracking closely—candidates we believe could emerge as leaders if and when we get tariff clarity. These stocks have shown notable relative strength throughout the recent market turmoil and appear to be well supported technically. While there are no guarantees, history suggests that names showing this kind of resilience are often among the first to break out when the broader market turns.

We wouldn’t recommend loading up on all of them, but we encourage you to do your own due diligence and keep these on your radar.

They’re ranked in order based on our current view of setup quality:

WPM – A gold/silver play that’s already breaking out. That said, we’re hesitant to chase strength in the precious metals space, as even a whiff of progress on tariffs could lead to sharp reversals in these names. WPM is currently extended and trading above its upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a better entry may come on a pullback.

PLTR is consolidating under the DTL from the peak after a strong move. This area also coincides with the 50-day SMA. A break higher would likely get us involved.

HOOD is similar but still struggling with the 20-day SMA but consolidating under the DTL and held the 200 day on the last dip. The MACD is crossing bullishly.

There is also a propulsion up target active with a 45.59 target, which aligns with the 50 day SMA. The 9 buy marked the low and is still 6 days from a 9 sell.

FTNT is very similar.

CYBR is in the same sector (cyber security software) and has almost an identical chart.

SPOT has held up very well and is not impacted by tariffs.

The recent 9 buy marked the low and now has a propulsion up target of 579.19 which aligns with the 50 day. We would need to see this area cleared convincingly.

TTWO we tried on the pages and fortunately exited flat before it collapsed, but the picture remains very healthy.

WMT has broken the DTL with volume but is still struggling at the 38.2% Fib/100day/50day confluence zone.

DASH still has some work to do but if it can reclaim the circle area, we would consider getting involved.

NFLX is another one we tried on the pages but it couldn’t hold up with the weight of the market. NFLX also is not affected by tariffs.

A few others that are developing but not as attractive:

HWM

TKO

V

UBER

META

TSLA

Hope that helps. Have a great weekend!

Best,

CSC Team

Coiled Spring Capital LLC, Founder
http://www.coiledspringcapital.com

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