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Volatility Returns—And We Were Ready
Today, the market finally delivered a dose of volatility—and if you’ve been following our research, you know this was no surprise.
Back in our July 16 report, we highlighted the growing risk of a market pullback:
"The evidence continues to build for a potential market retracement. Indexes remain resilient on the surface, but under the hood, more and more stocks are being sold—classic signs of institutional distribution. While this doesn’t guarantee a deeper pullback, cracks like these often foreshadow trouble, especially when paired with an unexpected macro shock. Last August, it was the Japan market crash, but U.S. indexes had already been discounting something for weeks. Could a similar setup be unfolding now? Absolutely. August has a habit of exposing geopolitical or structural market vulnerabilities. We’re not here to predict the exact trigger—only to prepare you for the possibility. Earnings season could push markets to new highs first, or we could begin unwinding tomorrow. Either way, the setup is ripe for a reversal. When our signals flash caution, we don’t ignore them. That means we’ll be using any residual strength to raise cash and reduce risk."
Despite continued strength in the indexes after that call, we remained disciplined. We raised cash, sold into strength, and rotated into lower-volatility ETFs to maintain exposure with reduced risk. On the equity side, we were tactical—sticking to leadership names with sector momentum or derivative earnings catalysts. In the options book, we sharply dialed back activity, adding only five new positions since July 22.
Corrections never feel good when you’re long—that’s the cost of playing the game. But staying prepared makes all the difference.
Performance Snapshot
Since April, our performance has been nothing short of exceptional. Both the single stock and options books have delivered linear, consistent gains. But as with all strong trends, nothing lasts forever. We're reassessing exposure, especially after taking a few modest hits in recent sessions. Our single stock P&L remains near all-time highs, but we’ll likely make some end-of-day adjustments to manage risk proactively.
Even after today’s move, our cumulative performance stands above +1300% (wins vs. losses). That’s across 407 trades since March 31, 2023—an average return of 3.18% per trade. To put that in context, a hypothetical $10K invested per trade would have generated over $130K in profit.
This is the power of our system: keep losses small, let winners run. Our hit rate remains above 50%, outperforming many professional traders.
Stay tuned. We’ll be watching the close closely.
Options Performance: Still Exceptional, Even with Expected Giveback
Our options book continues to deliver exceptional results. While we’re currently in the midst of a drawdown and expect further giveback into August expiration, the broader perspective is what matters—and it remains impressive.
We’re tracking approximately +5600% in cumulative gains since June 1st, 2024, and we anticipate this may settle closer to 5000% by expiration. That may sound like a steep pullback, but it’s the nature of options trading: gains are nonlinear, and periods of digestion are inevitable. The market must be cooperative for our setups to play out, and short-term drawdowns—especially during corrective phases like now—are part of the process.
Still, let’s put this in context.
Back in March, our cumulative gains stood near +1600–1700%. In just four months, performance has tripled. This underscores the power of being aggressive at the right time—a skill we’ve demonstrated repeatedly. We didn’t just get lucky—we sized up when the odds favored us.
To quantify the return:
With an average trade size of $500, that +5600% cumulative gain translates to over $28,000 in profits. That’s a 41% return on invested capital since June 1st, 2024.
Compare that to the 10-year Treasury yield (~4%) or even the S&P 500’s 18% return over the same period, and the outperformance becomes crystal clear. We’ve delivered 10x the risk-free rate and more than 2x the market.
So yes, we expect some retracement into expiration. But make no mistake—the overall trajectory remains powerful. This is what intelligent risk-taking, disciplined execution, and tactical aggression can achieve.
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